Egyptians are heading to the polls today for the first day of voting in what will probably be the freest and fairest elections in the country’s history. What comes of the elections remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt this is no small feat.
The importance of the vote is the underlined by the fact that only a year ago today, the Egyptian government oversaw an incredibly fraudulent election. Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party and its associated independents used bribery, violence, and intimidation to secure over 90 percent of the vote.
The elections were already delayed once, and they were at risk of being delayed again last week after protestors and riot police in Cairo clashed non-stop for nearly a week. After a massive protest November 19th, riot police violently dispersed a sit-in of roughly 200 people the next day, most of which were families of demonstrators who were injured in January by the same riot police. Police responded with large amounts of tear gas, birdshot, and live ammunition. The scene was lachrymose in every sense of the word.
The violence prompted throngs of Egyptians to flood the square. Those that that didn’t “go down,” as Egyptians say, were split on whether to go or not, worrying that they could delay elections and slow the transition. The military announced that elections would ago ahead as scheduled, a decision supported by the Muslim Brotherhood who is slated to win big if polls are held earlier rather than later.
In light of the clashes, many activists called for a boycott of the elections. The argument was that Egyptians couldn’t vote only a few miles from where their fellow citizens had been killed only a few days before. Others worried that the system wasn’t sufficiently free of influence from the powers-that-be, arguing (not incorrectly) that these elections aren’t going to be as free and as fair as they should be.
But, it appears as though their calls fell on deaf ears. Most journalists this morning are reporting long lines full of enthusiastic voters, and political parties (sometimes illegally) attempting to help them vote. Expect to see lots of inked-dyed fingers over today and tomorrow in the news.
Although I understand activist arguments for a boycott, I’m hopeful, and maybe even optimistic, this vote is going to be the beginning of a new period in Egyptian politics. If nothing huge goes wrong, the new period will be characterized by bolstered civil and political pluralism and a rivalry between the civilian government and the military.
The latter will be interesting to watch, and will likely be a slow and drawn out process. I foresee this happening even if arguably ‘illiberal’ political movements—namely Salafists and to a certain degree the Muslim Brotherhood—dominate the parliament. Regardless of character, most parties will still trace their support to a civilian, not military, constituency. That means that Islamist parties’ modus vivendi with the military will be over very soon.
We already saw the battle lines over the character of the new Egyptian state drawn on the Nov. 19 protest I mentioned before. Salafists and the Brotherhood were not about to have the powers of their civilian-led government undercut by the military on the eve of their accession to power. My feeling is that they were more upset about military privilege than articles that gave the Egyptian state a non-religious character.
My predictions depend on a nearly infinite number of assumptions, many of them visceral, that I’ve accumulated over my time here, not least of which is that pro-military parties don’t take too much power. In any case, we won’t know what to expect until the elections, which are going to be a nearly four month odyssey, in which anything can happen. The uncertainty continues.






